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United Community Banks, Inc. (UCB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.57 - $163.33$94.15
Multi-Stage$42.76 - $46.68$44.68
Blended Fair Value$69.42
Current Price$31.35
Upside121.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.19%51.10%0.930.870.720.550.490.440.340.220.130.12
YoY Growth--6.88%20.95%29.84%13.58%11.06%27.41%58.85%65.37%6.93%718.90%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.44%2.55%1.59%1.43%2.40%1.33%0.68%0.47%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)317.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.5039.6923.81
Cash Retained (M)200.78200.78200.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.50-39.69-23.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.28161.09176.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.96120.96120.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.302.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.57$94.15$163.33
Upside / Downside96.40%200.32%421.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)317.50338.14360.12383.52408.45435.00448.05
Payout Ratio36.76%47.41%58.06%68.71%79.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.72160.31209.08263.50324.12391.50414.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)145.56146.94148.32
Year 2 PV (M)172.38175.66178.97
Year 3 PV (M)197.26202.92208.69
Year 4 PV (M)220.32228.79237.50
Year 5 PV (M)241.64253.31265.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,194.814,397.424,607.79
Equity Value (M)5,171.965,405.045,646.71
Shares Outstanding (M)120.96120.96120.96
Fair Value$42.76$44.68$46.68
Upside / Downside36.39%42.54%48.91%

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