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Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.26 - $19.09$16.10
Multi-Stage$22.72 - $24.88$23.78
Blended Fair Value$19.94
Current Price$25.48
Upside-21.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.840.620.430.380.430.270.210.250.00
YoY Growth---100.00%35.96%43.14%14.00%-10.60%54.87%30.63%-15.10%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.32%2.44%1.71%1.50%1.68%1.08%0.83%0.98%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)370.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.1046.3127.79
Cash Retained (M)113.90113.90113.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.10-46.31-27.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.8067.5986.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)197.36197.36197.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.340.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.340.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.26$16.10$19.09
Upside / Downside-47.95%-36.80%-25.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)370.50366.80363.13359.50355.90352.34362.91
Payout Ratio69.26%73.41%77.55%81.70%85.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.60269.25281.62293.72305.55317.11335.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)244.31246.80249.29
Year 2 PV (M)231.86236.61241.42
Year 3 PV (M)219.41226.20233.12
Year 4 PV (M)207.10215.68224.53
Year 5 PV (M)195.02205.18215.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,385.553,561.853,745.41
Equity Value (M)4,483.244,692.314,909.51
Shares Outstanding (M)197.36197.36197.36
Fair Value$22.72$23.78$24.88
Upside / Downside-10.85%-6.69%-2.37%

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