Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kier Group plc (KIE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.70$2.92
Multi-Stage$6.52 - $7.19$6.85
Blended Fair Value$4.89
Current Price$2.09
Upside133.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%-4.72%0.050.020.000.000.000.000.110.140.110.11
YoY Growth--230.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-20.42%33.81%-0.60%27.11%
Dividend Yield--2.51%1.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%12.76%1.79%1.05%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.8212.397.43
Cash Retained (M)67.7067.7067.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.82-12.39-7.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.8855.3160.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)458.60458.60458.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.40%5.40%5.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.29$2.92$3.70
Upside / Downside9.49%39.87%77.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99.1098.1197.1396.1695.2094.2497.07
Payout Ratio31.69%43.35%55.01%66.67%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.4042.5353.4364.1174.5784.8289.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.40%5.40%5.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.9440.3540.76
Year 2 PV (M)47.1348.0949.07
Year 3 PV (M)53.1154.7556.42
Year 4 PV (M)58.0160.4262.90
Year 5 PV (M)61.9765.2068.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,729.812,871.963,019.97
Equity Value (M)2,989.973,140.763,297.67
Shares Outstanding (M)458.60458.60458.60
Fair Value$6.52$6.85$7.19
Upside / Downside211.95%227.68%244.05%

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