Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Centamin plc (CEY.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.97 - $1.71$1.29
Multi-Stage$0.96 - $1.05$1.01
Blended Fair Value$1.15
Current Price$1.54
Upside-25.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-18.44%0.00%0.040.070.070.120.070.120.160.040.030.01
YoY Growth---39.49%7.06%-41.96%71.20%-43.95%-21.60%300.21%36.36%240.42%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.07%5.66%5.68%8.22%4.54%10.47%7.23%1.80%2.25%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9310.586.35
Cash Retained (M)38.4038.4038.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.93-10.58-6.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.4627.8132.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,180.701,180.701,180.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate3.87%4.87%5.87%
Fair Value$0.97$1.29$1.71
Upside / Downside-36.69%-16.41%10.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.6788.8093.1297.65102.41107.40110.62
Payout Ratio54.65%61.72%68.79%75.86%82.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.2854.8164.0674.0884.9396.66102.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate3.87%4.87%5.87%
Year 1 PV (M)49.3649.8350.31
Year 2 PV (M)51.9552.9653.97
Year 3 PV (M)54.1155.6957.29
Year 4 PV (M)55.8658.0560.29
Year 5 PV (M)57.2660.0762.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)868.14910.74955.00
Equity Value (M)1,136.671,187.331,239.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,180.701,180.701,180.70
Fair Value$0.96$1.01$1.05
Upside / Downside-37.49%-34.70%-31.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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