Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $166.20 - $212.63 | $191.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $280.72 - $312.22 | $296.12 |
| Blended Fair Value | $243.60 | |
| Current Price | $442.00 | |
| Upside | -44.89% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.90% | -14.13% | 2.86 | 5.20 | 5.70 | 10.54 | 6.00 | 10.50 | 10.10 | 13.10 | 12.50 | 10.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -44.96% | -8.79% | -45.93% | 75.57% | -42.82% | 4.01% | -22.91% | 4.76% | 25.00% | -23.82% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.70% | 0.56% | 1.04% | 3.61% | 2.04% | 4.17% | 3.28% | 4.20% | 3.47% | 4.04% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 23,108.81 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,441.79 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 21,667.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 4,621.76 | 2,888.60 | 1,733.16 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 21,667.02 | 21,667.02 | 21,667.02 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -4,621.76 | -2,888.60 | -1,733.16 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 17,045.26 | 18,778.42 | 19,933.86 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 348.39 | 348.39 | 348.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 48.93 | 53.90 | 57.22 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.14 | 4.14 | 4.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 48.93 | 53.90 | 57.22 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 53.06 | 58.04 | 61.36 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.65% | 10.65% | 10.65% |
| Growth Rate | -16.13% | -15.13% | -14.13% |
| Fair Value | $166.20 | $191.08 | $212.63 |
| Upside / Downside | -62.40% | -56.77% | -51.89% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 23,108.81 | 19,612.57 | 16,645.29 | 14,126.95 | 11,989.61 | 10,175.65 | 10,480.92 |
| Payout Ratio | 6.24% | 22.99% | 39.74% | 56.50% | 73.25% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,441.79 | 4,509.18 | 6,615.42 | 7,981.11 | 8,782.13 | 9,158.08 | 9,694.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.65% | 10.65% | 10.65% |
| Growth Rate | -16.13% | -15.13% | -14.13% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,027.19 | 4,075.20 | 4,123.22 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,276.73 | 5,403.31 | 5,531.39 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,685.58 | 5,891.38 | 6,102.09 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,587.46 | 5,858.75 | 6,139.79 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,203.83 | 5,521.55 | 5,854.60 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 72,017.29 | 76,414.26 | 81,023.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 97,798.08 | 103,164.45 | 108,774.51 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 348.39 | 348.39 | 348.39 |
| Fair Value | $280.72 | $296.12 | $312.22 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.49% | -33.00% | -29.36% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0K58.L | NOV Inc. | 1.29% | $0.20 | 15.83% |
| CON | Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | 1.29% | $0.25 | 20.88% |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International, Inc. | 1.28% | $0.98 | 32.90% |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | 1.28% | $4.20 | 23.23% |
| JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 1.28% | $2.29 | 34.69% |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | 1.28% | $2.08 | 29.19% |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health Corporation | 1.28% | $0.48 | 28.68% |
| WMG | Warner Music Group Corp. | 1.28% | $0.39 | 61.67% |
| 0K4C.L | NRG Energy, Inc. | 1.27% | $2.10 | 28.38% |
| DCI | Donaldson Company, Inc. | 1.27% | $1.14 | 35.14% |
| TEX | Terex Corporation | 1.27% | $0.70 | 29.49% |
| BCC | Boise Cascade Company | 1.26% | $0.93 | 18.09% |
| BCML | BayCom Corp | 1.25% | $0.36 | 16.94% |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc. | 1.25% | $7.07 | 44.68% |
| PRMW | Primo Water Corporation | 1.25% | $0.35 | 61.28% |
| ESI | Element Solutions Inc | 1.24% | $0.32 | 32.50% |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 1.23% | $3.00 | 31.76% |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 1.23% | $1.18 | 26.69% |
| PBI-PB | Pitney Bowes Inc. NT 43 | 1.23% | $0.25 | 61.37% |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial, Inc. | 1.23% | $2.01 | 19.48% |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | 1.23% | $1.00 | 17.78% |
| AMP | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 1.22% | $6.04 | 16.30% |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | 1.22% | $0.96 | 23.25% |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp, Inc. | 1.21% | $0.26 | 13.26% |
| RICK | RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | 1.21% | $0.28 | 15.00% |
| ABC | AmerisourceBergen Corporation | 1.20% | $2.25 | 28.12% |
| EQBK | Equity Bancshares, Inc. | 1.20% | $0.54 | 58.24% |
| HMNF | HMN Financial, Inc. | 1.20% | $0.34 | 28.27% |
| IBP | Installed Building Products, Inc. | 1.20% | $3.22 | 34.18% |
| CHH | Choice Hotels International, Inc. | 1.19% | $1.15 | 13.93% |
| EQC | Equity Commonwealth | 1.19% | $0.02 | 8.60% |
| FLS | Flowserve Corporation | 1.19% | $0.84 | 24.35% |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 1.19% | $1.90 | 33.71% |
| LNN | Lindsay Corporation | 1.19% | $1.44 | 21.27% |
| INGM | Ingram Micro Holding Corporation | 1.18% | $0.25 | 20.42% |
| RBA | RB Global, Inc. | 1.18% | $1.22 | 52.13% |
| SEIC | SEI Investments Company | 1.18% | $0.98 | 17.66% |
| HEES | H&E Equipment Services, Inc. | 1.17% | $1.11 | 44.29% |
| WSFS | WSFS Financial Corporation | 1.17% | $0.64 | 13.17% |
| ASTE | Astec Industries, Inc. | 1.16% | $0.52 | 24.84% |
| GFGD | The Growth for Good Acquisition Corporation | 1.16% | $0.12 | 42.35% |
| HUBG | Hub Group, Inc. | 1.16% | $0.50 | 28.58% |
| NWS | News Corporation | 1.16% | $0.35 | 16.79% |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | 1.15% | $0.60 | 41.87% |
| GFF | Griffon Corporation | 1.15% | $0.86 | 77.66% |
| LH | Labcorp Holdings Inc. | 1.15% | $2.89 | 28.24% |
| YAFIX | AMG Funds - AMG Yacktman Focused Fund | 1.15% | $0.22 | 27.84% |
| 0L1G.L | SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 1.14% | $0.99 | 29.41% |
| 0M29.L | Xylem Inc. | 1.14% | $1.56 | 40.08% |
| DHI | D.R. Horton, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.66 | 13.80% |