Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Yongmaotai Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. (605208.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.60 - $29.81$11.08
Multi-Stage$3.18 - $3.48$3.32
Blended Fair Value$7.20
Current Price$14.40
Upside-49.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS21.19%7.97%0.090.090.150.130.040.030.030.040.130.05
YoY Growth---4.70%-39.08%14.32%244.56%14.31%4.44%-18.14%-68.33%135.48%29.23%
Dividend Yield--0.81%1.20%1.35%1.33%0.28%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.356.473.88
Cash Retained (M)32.5732.5732.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.35-6.47-3.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.2326.1128.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)345.17345.17345.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.60$11.08$29.81
Upside / Downside-61.14%-23.07%107.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.7455.1058.6862.5066.5670.8973.01
Payout Ratio37.04%47.63%58.22%68.82%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.1626.2534.1743.0152.8563.8067.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.1324.3624.58
Year 2 PV (M)28.8729.4229.98
Year 3 PV (M)33.4134.3735.35
Year 4 PV (M)37.7439.1940.69
Year 5 PV (M)41.8843.9046.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)931.23976.211,022.91
Equity Value (M)1,097.261,147.451,199.51
Shares Outstanding (M)345.17345.17345.17
Fair Value$3.18$3.32$3.48
Upside / Downside-77.92%-76.91%-75.87%

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