Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yuanli Chemical Group Co.,Ltd. (603217.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.00 - $62.01$35.34
Multi-Stage$15.45 - $16.90$16.16
Blended Fair Value$25.75
Current Price$22.83
Upside12.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%12.49%0.390.500.500.230.260.000.040.040.080.11
YoY Growth---20.91%-0.01%114.94%-11.33%0.00%-100.00%-5.48%-48.45%-25.65%-13.06%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.05%1.62%0.80%1.67%0.00%0.11%0.11%0.22%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5225.3215.19
Cash Retained (M)177.44177.44177.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.52-25.32-15.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.92152.11162.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.31209.31209.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.730.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.730.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.00$35.34$62.01
Upside / Downside0.74%54.81%171.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.60215.76229.79244.73260.63277.57285.90
Payout Ratio12.42%27.93%43.45%58.97%74.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.1660.2799.84144.31194.13249.82264.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.7555.2755.79
Year 2 PV (M)82.3983.9685.54
Year 3 PV (M)108.17111.27114.44
Year 4 PV (M)132.18137.26142.49
Year 5 PV (M)154.51161.98169.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,702.652,833.192,968.73
Equity Value (M)3,234.653,382.933,536.71
Shares Outstanding (M)209.31209.31209.31
Fair Value$15.45$16.16$16.90
Upside / Downside-32.31%-29.21%-25.99%

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