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GeoVision Inc. (3356.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.87 - $49.75$42.18
Multi-Stage$90.04 - $99.22$94.54
Blended Fair Value$68.36
Current Price$53.20
Upside28.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-5.49%3.241.561.341.120.000.000.000.953.824.69
YoY Growth--107.14%16.67%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.13%-18.52%-17.50%
Dividend Yield--6.12%2.50%2.79%3.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.87%9.50%7.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)426.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.3953.3732.02
Cash Retained (M)166.49166.49166.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.39-53.37-32.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.09113.12134.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.5180.5180.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.411.67
LTM Dividend per Share3.243.243.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.411.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.244.644.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-4.81%-3.81%-2.81%
Fair Value$34.87$42.18$49.75
Upside / Downside-34.46%-20.72%-6.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)426.97410.72395.08380.04365.57351.65362.20
Payout Ratio61.01%66.81%72.60%78.40%84.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.48274.38286.84297.96307.81316.49335.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-4.81%-3.81%-2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)254.30256.97259.64
Year 2 PV (M)246.39251.59256.85
Year 3 PV (M)237.20244.76252.47
Year 4 PV (M)227.11236.81246.81
Year 5 PV (M)216.42228.03240.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,067.406,392.856,732.13
Equity Value (M)7,248.827,611.017,988.03
Shares Outstanding (M)80.5180.5180.51
Fair Value$90.04$94.54$99.22
Upside / Downside69.25%77.70%86.50%

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