Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. (301163.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.58 - $5.33$4.41
Multi-Stage$6.73 - $7.40$7.06
Blended Fair Value$5.74
Current Price$28.10
Upside-79.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS15.06%0.00%0.280.250.020.020.090.140.030.410.000.00
YoY Growth--12.43%921.65%40.13%-79.60%-38.58%308.70%-91.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.25%1.17%0.09%0.05%0.26%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.214.502.70
Cash Retained (M)24.3924.3924.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.21-4.50-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1819.8821.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6581.6581.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.58$4.41$5.33
Upside / Downside-87.25%-84.29%-81.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.0335.6735.3134.9634.6134.2735.29
Payout Ratio32.32%43.86%55.39%66.93%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6515.6419.5623.4027.1630.8432.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14.3814.5314.68
Year 2 PV (M)16.5416.8817.22
Year 3 PV (M)18.1918.7519.33
Year 4 PV (M)19.4120.2221.05
Year 5 PV (M)20.2721.3222.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)460.45484.43509.39
Equity Value (M)549.24576.13604.08
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6581.6581.65
Fair Value$6.73$7.06$7.40
Upside / Downside-76.06%-74.89%-73.67%

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