Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Essence Fastening Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (301005.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.73 - $1.06$0.89
Multi-Stage$1.23 - $1.35$1.29
Blended Fair Value$1.09
Current Price$49.60
Upside-97.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.08%0.00%0.100.190.210.200.270.080.110.200.000.00
YoY Growth---46.31%-10.00%8.05%-26.04%231.74%-23.10%-45.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.72%1.18%0.89%1.07%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.711.691.02
Cash Retained (M)7.857.857.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.71-1.69-1.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.146.166.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.96132.96132.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.73$0.89$1.06
Upside / Downside-98.52%-98.20%-97.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.5513.4213.2813.1513.0212.8913.27
Payout Ratio42.05%51.64%61.23%70.82%80.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.706.938.139.3110.4711.6012.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.306.366.43
Year 2 PV (M)6.726.867.00
Year 3 PV (M)7.007.217.43
Year 4 PV (M)7.157.457.75
Year 5 PV (M)7.207.587.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)129.61136.36143.38
Equity Value (M)163.98171.82179.97
Shares Outstanding (M)132.96132.96132.96
Fair Value$1.23$1.29$1.35
Upside / Downside-97.51%-97.39%-97.27%

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