Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited (0236.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.70 - $2.65$2.14
Multi-Stage$3.96 - $4.37$4.16
Blended Fair Value$3.15
Current Price$0.96
Upside228.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%9.98%0.050.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--399.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-48.23%
Dividend Yield--5.95%1.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.398.375.02
Cash Retained (M)44.5144.5144.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.39-8.37-5.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.1336.1539.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.57373.57373.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.70$2.14$2.65
Upside / Downside77.26%122.85%176.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.9366.2665.6064.9464.2963.6565.56
Payout Ratio33.49%44.79%56.09%67.40%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4229.6836.8043.7750.6057.2860.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.6527.9328.21
Year 2 PV (M)31.9432.5933.25
Year 3 PV (M)35.3936.4837.60
Year 4 PV (M)38.1139.6941.32
Year 5 PV (M)40.2042.3044.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,307.841,375.941,446.85
Equity Value (M)1,481.131,554.941,631.72
Shares Outstanding (M)373.57373.57373.57
Fair Value$3.96$4.16$4.37
Upside / Downside313.00%333.58%354.99%

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