Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co., Ltd. (002732.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.27 - $10.74$8.20
Multi-Stage$8.69 - $9.54$9.11
Blended Fair Value$8.65
Current Price$16.52
Upside-47.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.34%-3.47%0.160.240.230.170.430.140.670.160.260.21
YoY Growth---30.02%0.09%37.43%-60.60%210.69%-79.01%315.78%-38.53%25.00%-11.10%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.30%1.18%0.80%2.08%0.67%3.48%0.63%0.80%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.989.375.62
Cash Retained (M)50.4850.4850.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.98-9.37-5.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.4941.1144.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)151.16151.16151.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$6.27$8.20$10.74
Upside / Downside-62.06%-50.35%-34.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.9276.6778.4580.2882.1584.0686.58
Payout Ratio32.63%44.11%55.58%67.05%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.4533.8143.6053.8364.5175.6580.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)31.0831.3931.69
Year 2 PV (M)36.8337.5638.30
Year 3 PV (M)41.7943.0444.32
Year 4 PV (M)46.0347.8849.78
Year 5 PV (M)49.6252.1254.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,108.761,164.561,222.59
Equity Value (M)1,314.121,376.551,441.40
Shares Outstanding (M)151.16151.16151.16
Fair Value$8.69$9.11$9.54
Upside / Downside-47.38%-44.88%-42.28%

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