Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co., Ltd. (000901.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.32 - $3.76$2.97
Multi-Stage$2.72 - $2.98$2.85
Blended Fair Value$2.91
Current Price$16.79
Upside-82.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.02%26.48%0.070.010.030.030.010.050.000.020.040.01
YoY Growth--405.42%-56.67%-11.82%193.20%-78.49%0.00%-100.00%-47.37%401.71%29.26%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.16%0.30%0.37%0.15%0.62%0.00%0.17%0.22%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2220.7712.46
Cash Retained (M)132.42132.42132.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.22-20.77-12.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.19111.65119.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)795.48795.48795.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate2.02%3.02%4.02%
Fair Value$2.32$2.97$3.76
Upside / Downside-86.17%-82.32%-77.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.12171.15176.32181.66187.15192.81198.60
Payout Ratio20.29%34.23%48.17%62.12%76.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7158.5984.94112.84142.34173.53183.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate2.02%3.02%4.02%
Year 1 PV (M)53.0553.5754.09
Year 2 PV (M)69.6571.0272.40
Year 3 PV (M)83.7786.2688.80
Year 4 PV (M)95.6999.50103.42
Year 5 PV (M)105.63110.91116.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,756.841,844.641,935.92
Equity Value (M)2,164.642,265.912,371.03
Shares Outstanding (M)795.48795.48795.48
Fair Value$2.72$2.85$2.98
Upside / Downside-83.79%-83.03%-82.25%

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