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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.72 - $34.37$25.99
Multi-Stage$20.69 - $22.68$21.67
Blended Fair Value$23.83
Current Price$25.81
Upside-7.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.742.341.40
Cash Retained (M)17.4417.4417.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.74-2.34-1.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7015.1016.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.6312.6312.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.201.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.201.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.92%3.92%4.92%
Fair Value$19.72$25.99$34.37
Upside / Downside-23.58%0.69%33.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.6919.4220.1820.9821.8022.6523.33
Payout Ratio6.71%23.37%40.03%56.68%73.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.254.548.0811.8915.9920.3921.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.92%3.92%4.92%
Year 1 PV (M)4.124.164.20
Year 2 PV (M)6.666.796.92
Year 3 PV (M)8.899.169.42
Year 4 PV (M)10.8611.2811.73
Year 5 PV (M)12.5713.1913.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)218.18228.99240.22
Equity Value (M)261.28273.57286.32
Shares Outstanding (M)12.6312.6312.63
Fair Value$20.69$21.67$22.68
Upside / Downside-19.83%-16.06%-12.14%

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