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J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.65 - $215.81$146.18
Multi-Stage$88.30 - $96.51$92.33
Blended Fair Value$119.25
Current Price$134.17
Upside-11.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.44%6.49%1.751.741.661.241.141.121.051.010.990.97
YoY Growth--0.95%4.30%33.98%8.94%2.16%6.50%3.58%2.40%1.67%4.02%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.88%0.95%0.62%0.68%1.21%1.01%0.86%1.08%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)172.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.5371.5842.95
Cash Retained (M)400.08400.08400.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.53-71.58-42.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)285.55328.50357.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.22100.22100.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.853.283.56
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.853.283.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.575.005.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.49%5.49%6.49%
Fair Value$103.65$146.18$215.81
Upside / Downside-22.74%8.95%60.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.67604.11637.27672.26709.17748.10770.54
Payout Ratio30.14%42.11%54.08%66.05%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)172.59254.39344.65444.06553.34673.29712.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.49%5.49%6.49%
Year 1 PV (M)230.96233.17235.38
Year 2 PV (M)284.10289.57295.08
Year 3 PV (M)332.34341.97351.79
Year 4 PV (M)375.99390.60405.62
Year 5 PV (M)415.37435.63456.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,210.817,562.527,927.83
Equity Value (M)8,849.589,253.469,672.38
Shares Outstanding (M)100.22100.22100.22
Fair Value$88.30$92.33$96.51
Upside / Downside-34.19%-31.19%-28.07%

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