Definitive Analysis
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FDJ United (FDJ.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.71 - $831.15$458.39
Multi-Stage$101.85 - $111.15$106.42
Blended Fair Value$282.41
Current Price$30.04
Upside840.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.68%9.15%1.761.361.230.890.450.630.680.651.230.71
YoY Growth--29.72%10.41%37.67%99.88%-29.50%-6.19%4.82%-47.51%72.33%-2.92%
Dividend Yield--4.74%4.10%3.28%2.30%1.20%2.66%2.98%2.84%5.42%3.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)778.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)707.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.7297.3358.40
Cash Retained (M)70.8070.8070.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.72-97.33-58.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-84.92-26.5312.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)186.30186.30186.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.46-0.140.07
LTM Dividend per Share3.803.803.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.46-0.140.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.343.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$190.71$458.39$831.15
Upside / Downside534.84%1,425.94%2,666.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)778.60829.21883.11940.511,001.641,066.751,098.75
Payout Ratio90.91%90.73%90.54%90.36%90.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)707.80752.30799.60849.87903.29960.071,016.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)694.22700.80707.38
Year 2 PV (M)680.89693.86706.95
Year 3 PV (M)667.82686.99706.53
Year 4 PV (M)655.00680.19706.09
Year 5 PV (M)642.42673.45705.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,635.1816,390.3617,174.45
Equity Value (M)18,975.5219,825.6420,707.06
Shares Outstanding (M)186.30186.30186.30
Fair Value$101.85$106.42$111.15
Upside / Downside239.06%254.25%270.00%

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