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First Business Financial Services, Inc. (FBIZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$148.19 - $393.11$226.60
Multi-Stage$100.71 - $110.08$105.31
Blended Fair Value$165.96
Current Price$51.26
Upside223.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.79%9.37%1.020.930.820.760.690.640.600.560.510.47
YoY Growth--9.79%13.31%8.47%9.09%8.36%6.10%8.33%8.67%9.43%12.37%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.58%2.69%2.31%2.81%4.14%2.92%2.22%1.98%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.286.433.86
Cash Retained (M)42.0542.0542.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.28-6.43-3.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.7735.6338.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.148.148.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.384.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.151.151.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.384.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.055.535.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$148.19$226.60$393.11
Upside / Downside189.10%342.06%666.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.4054.7458.3062.0966.1370.4272.54
Payout Ratio18.19%32.55%46.91%61.28%75.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.3517.8227.3538.0550.0263.3867.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.1816.3316.49
Year 2 PV (M)22.5522.9823.41
Year 3 PV (M)28.4829.3030.13
Year 4 PV (M)34.0035.3136.65
Year 5 PV (M)39.1241.0142.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)679.11711.91745.97
Equity Value (M)819.44856.84895.62
Shares Outstanding (M)8.148.148.14
Fair Value$100.71$105.31$110.08
Upside / Downside96.48%105.44%114.74%

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