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The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.08 - $35.19$28.03
Multi-Stage$30.58 - $33.35$31.94
Blended Fair Value$29.99
Current Price$17.98
Upside66.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.361.351.200.960.950.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.06%12.20%24.68%1.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.82%6.74%6.53%4.42%3.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)773.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)757.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.6296.6457.98
Cash Retained (M)16.1016.1016.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.62-96.64-57.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-138.52-80.54-41.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.45369.45369.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.37-0.22-0.11
LTM Dividend per Share2.052.052.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.37-0.22-0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$22.08$28.03$35.19
Upside / Downside22.80%55.92%95.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)773.10791.73810.80830.34850.34870.83896.96
Payout Ratio97.92%96.33%94.75%93.17%91.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)757.00762.70768.24773.60778.77783.75829.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)692.27699.10705.92
Year 2 PV (M)632.91645.45658.12
Year 3 PV (M)578.47595.75613.38
Year 4 PV (M)528.56549.72571.51
Year 5 PV (M)482.82507.10532.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,381.738,803.229,241.50
Equity Value (M)11,296.7611,800.3412,322.78
Shares Outstanding (M)369.45369.45369.45
Fair Value$30.58$31.94$33.35
Upside / Downside70.06%77.64%85.51%

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