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Apartment Income REIT Corp. (AIRC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.11 - $36.52$31.29
Multi-Stage$46.64 - $51.23$48.89
Blended Fair Value$40.09
Current Price$31.78
Upside26.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS1.58%6.42%1.801.881.832.071.661.671.591.471.321.08
YoY Growth---4.11%2.95%-11.60%24.72%-0.64%5.18%8.17%10.82%22.70%11.35%
Dividend Yield--5.68%5.26%3.42%4.84%4.37%4.40%4.18%3.86%3.49%2.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)375.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.9979.9948.00
Cash Retained (M)375.83375.83375.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.99-79.99-48.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.84295.83327.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.804.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Fair Value$26.11$31.29$36.52
Upside / Downside-17.85%-1.53%14.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.95622.63605.78589.38573.43557.91574.65
Payout Ratio41.27%51.02%60.76%70.51%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.12317.65368.09415.57460.21502.12531.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)288.17291.16294.16
Year 2 PV (M)302.94309.26315.65
Year 3 PV (M)310.26320.03330.00
Year 4 PV (M)311.70324.85338.41
Year 5 PV (M)308.53324.88341.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,356.005,639.945,935.80
Equity Value (M)6,877.607,210.137,555.95
Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
Fair Value$46.64$48.89$51.23
Upside / Downside46.74%53.84%61.22%

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