Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anji Foodstuff Co., Ltd (603696.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.38 - $21.28$9.15
Multi-Stage$3.53 - $3.85$3.69
Blended Fair Value$6.42
Current Price$11.58
Upside-44.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.07%46.15%0.080.050.130.270.320.440.520.070.080.00
YoY Growth--50.00%-60.00%-50.00%-16.67%-28.21%-15.27%673.30%-16.67%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.58%1.40%3.08%3.50%4.16%4.58%0.35%0.42%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.055.033.02
Cash Retained (M)10.6610.6610.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.05-5.03-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.615.637.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.70221.70221.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.38$9.15$21.28
Upside / Downside-53.55%-20.96%83.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2442.8645.6448.6151.7755.1356.79
Payout Ratio73.51%76.81%80.11%83.40%86.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.5832.9236.5640.5444.8849.6252.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.1030.3830.67
Year 2 PV (M)30.5631.1531.73
Year 3 PV (M)30.9831.8732.78
Year 4 PV (M)31.3632.5733.81
Year 5 PV (M)31.7033.2334.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)627.49657.79689.26
Equity Value (M)782.19817.00853.07
Shares Outstanding (M)221.70221.70221.70
Fair Value$3.53$3.69$3.85
Upside / Downside-69.53%-68.18%-66.77%

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