Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd (600391.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.05 - $27.07$20.17
Multi-Stage$3.93 - $4.30$4.11
Blended Fair Value$12.14
Current Price$28.43
Upside-57.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.33%17.49%0.150.130.120.100.130.210.030.210.030.03
YoY Growth--17.75%10.40%13.26%-18.77%-39.70%594.96%-85.77%602.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.75%0.54%0.48%0.70%1.30%0.17%1.06%0.08%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.955.603.36
Cash Retained (M)6.386.386.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.95-5.60-3.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.580.783.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.27327.27327.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Fair Value$7.05$20.17$27.07
Upside / Downside-75.19%-29.07%-4.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.7747.4550.2853.2856.4659.8361.63
Payout Ratio85.76%86.61%87.46%88.30%89.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4041.0943.9747.0550.3453.8557.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Year 1 PV (M)38.1938.5538.91
Year 2 PV (M)37.9738.7039.43
Year 3 PV (M)37.7538.8439.95
Year 4 PV (M)37.5338.9840.48
Year 5 PV (M)37.3139.1241.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,097.721,151.011,206.35
Equity Value (M)1,286.471,345.201,406.13
Shares Outstanding (M)327.27327.27327.27
Fair Value$3.93$4.11$4.30
Upside / Downside-86.17%-85.54%-84.89%

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