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Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.65 - $5.55$4.54
Multi-Stage$9.34 - $10.28$9.80
Blended Fair Value$7.17
Current Price$4.23
Upside69.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.39%-0.67%0.610.540.640.660.700.811.010.860.870.77
YoY Growth--13.17%-15.72%-1.78%-6.31%-13.64%-19.51%16.98%-1.20%12.56%17.84%
Dividend Yield--13.97%14.52%20.52%19.94%20.78%21.50%15.43%18.13%17.75%14.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,018.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)801.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)203.71127.3276.39
Cash Retained (M)217.50217.50217.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-203.71-127.32-76.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.8090.19141.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,450.422,450.422,450.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.67%-1.67%-0.67%
Fair Value$3.65$4.54$5.55
Upside / Downside-13.79%7.35%31.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,018.531,001.57984.89968.49952.37936.51964.60
Payout Ratio78.65%80.92%83.19%85.46%87.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)801.03810.44819.31827.66835.50842.86892.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.67%-1.67%-0.67%
Year 1 PV (M)755.29763.04770.80
Year 2 PV (M)711.59726.29741.14
Year 3 PV (M)669.93690.79712.08
Year 4 PV (M)630.26656.56683.68
Year 5 PV (M)592.54623.61655.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,536.1920,560.5821,627.50
Equity Value (M)22,895.7924,020.8725,191.16
Shares Outstanding (M)2,450.422,450.422,450.42
Fair Value$9.34$9.80$10.28
Upside / Downside120.89%131.74%143.03%

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