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Te Chang Construction Co., Ltd. (5511.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$752.01 - $1,629.01$1,526.62
Multi-Stage$247.41 - $270.74$258.86
Blended Fair Value$892.74
Current Price$61.40
Upside1,353.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS18.95%0.00%4.982.391.991.992.192.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--108.33%20.00%0.00%-9.09%4.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.28%3.34%5.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)932.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)501.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.49116.5569.93
Cash Retained (M)501.36501.36501.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.49-116.55-69.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)314.87384.81431.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.83113.83113.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.383.79
LTM Dividend per Share3.793.793.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.383.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.557.177.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$752.01$1,526.62$1,629.01
Upside / Downside1,124.77%2,386.35%2,553.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)932.43993.041,057.591,126.331,199.541,277.511,315.84
Payout Ratio46.23%54.98%63.74%72.49%81.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.07546.02674.09816.50974.581,149.761,217.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)508.27513.08517.90
Year 2 PV (M)584.10595.22606.45
Year 3 PV (M)658.58677.48696.75
Year 4 PV (M)731.73759.87788.81
Year 5 PV (M)803.56842.38882.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,878.1826,079.8027,327.42
Equity Value (M)28,164.4129,467.8330,820.00
Shares Outstanding (M)113.83113.83113.83
Fair Value$247.41$258.86$270.74
Upside / Downside302.96%321.60%340.95%

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