Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14,387.37 - $56,913.05 | $24,479.74 |
| Multi-Stage | $8,928.55 - $9,764.42 | $9,338.86 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16,909.30 | |
| Current Price | $60,000.00 | |
| Upside | -71.82% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 33.50% | 0.00% | 98.94 | 124.20 | 52.32 | 137.17 | 23.70 | 23.33 | 27.41 | 36.41 | 25.80 | 26.40 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -20.34% | 137.39% | -61.86% | 478.86% | 1.56% | -14.87% | -24.72% | 41.12% | -2.27% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.25% | 0.23% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.16% | 0.13% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 213,360.13 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 38,944.32 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 174,415.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 42,672.03 | 26,670.02 | 16,002.01 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 174,415.81 | 174,415.81 | 174,415.81 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -42,672.03 | -26,670.02 | -16,002.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 131,743.79 | 147,745.80 | 158,413.80 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 439.42 | 439.42 | 439.42 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 299.81 | 336.23 | 360.50 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 88.63 | 88.63 | 88.63 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 299.81 | 336.23 | 360.50 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 388.44 | 424.85 | 449.13 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.35% | 8.35% | 8.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $14,387.37 | $24,479.74 | $56,913.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -76.02% | -59.20% | -5.14% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 213,360.13 | 227,228.54 | 241,998.39 | 257,728.29 | 274,480.63 | 292,321.87 | 301,091.52 |
| Payout Ratio | 18.25% | 32.60% | 46.95% | 61.30% | 75.65% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 38,944.32 | 74,081.69 | 113,622.39 | 157,990.38 | 207,646.16 | 263,089.68 | 278,509.66 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.35% | 8.35% | 8.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 67,731.63 | 68,373.63 | 69,015.64 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 94,978.46 | 96,787.53 | 98,613.67 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 120,745.92 | 124,212.10 | 127,743.99 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 145,092.95 | 150,672.81 | 156,412.09 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 168,076.43 | 176,194.58 | 184,623.44 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,326,782.67 | 3,487,467.52 | 3,654,302.15 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,923,408.05 | 4,103,708.17 | 4,290,710.98 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 439.42 | 439.42 | 439.42 |
| Fair Value | $8,928.55 | $9,338.86 | $9,764.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.12% | -84.44% | -83.73% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0K58.L | NOV Inc. | 1.29% | $0.20 | 15.83% |
| CON | Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | 1.29% | $0.25 | 20.88% |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International, Inc. | 1.28% | $0.98 | 32.90% |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | 1.28% | $4.20 | 23.23% |
| JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 1.28% | $2.29 | 34.69% |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | 1.28% | $2.08 | 29.19% |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health Corporation | 1.28% | $0.48 | 28.68% |
| WMG | Warner Music Group Corp. | 1.28% | $0.39 | 61.67% |
| 0K4C.L | NRG Energy, Inc. | 1.27% | $2.10 | 28.38% |
| DCI | Donaldson Company, Inc. | 1.27% | $1.14 | 35.14% |
| TEX | Terex Corporation | 1.27% | $0.70 | 29.49% |
| BCC | Boise Cascade Company | 1.26% | $0.93 | 18.09% |
| BCML | BayCom Corp | 1.25% | $0.36 | 16.94% |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc. | 1.25% | $7.07 | 44.68% |
| PRMW | Primo Water Corporation | 1.25% | $0.35 | 61.28% |
| ESI | Element Solutions Inc | 1.24% | $0.32 | 32.50% |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 1.23% | $3.00 | 31.76% |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 1.23% | $1.18 | 26.69% |
| PBI-PB | Pitney Bowes Inc. NT 43 | 1.23% | $0.25 | 61.37% |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial, Inc. | 1.23% | $2.01 | 19.48% |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | 1.23% | $1.00 | 17.78% |
| AMP | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 1.22% | $6.04 | 16.30% |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | 1.22% | $0.96 | 23.25% |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp, Inc. | 1.21% | $0.26 | 13.26% |
| RICK | RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | 1.21% | $0.28 | 15.00% |
| ABC | AmerisourceBergen Corporation | 1.20% | $2.25 | 28.12% |
| EQBK | Equity Bancshares, Inc. | 1.20% | $0.54 | 58.24% |
| HMNF | HMN Financial, Inc. | 1.20% | $0.34 | 28.27% |
| IBP | Installed Building Products, Inc. | 1.20% | $3.22 | 34.18% |
| CHH | Choice Hotels International, Inc. | 1.19% | $1.15 | 13.93% |
| EQC | Equity Commonwealth | 1.19% | $0.02 | 8.60% |
| FLS | Flowserve Corporation | 1.19% | $0.84 | 24.35% |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 1.19% | $1.90 | 33.71% |
| LNN | Lindsay Corporation | 1.19% | $1.44 | 21.27% |
| INGM | Ingram Micro Holding Corporation | 1.18% | $0.25 | 20.42% |
| RBA | RB Global, Inc. | 1.18% | $1.22 | 52.13% |
| SEIC | SEI Investments Company | 1.18% | $0.98 | 17.66% |
| HEES | H&E Equipment Services, Inc. | 1.17% | $1.11 | 44.29% |
| WSFS | WSFS Financial Corporation | 1.17% | $0.64 | 13.17% |
| ASTE | Astec Industries, Inc. | 1.16% | $0.52 | 24.84% |
| GFGD | The Growth for Good Acquisition Corporation | 1.16% | $0.12 | 42.35% |
| HUBG | Hub Group, Inc. | 1.16% | $0.50 | 28.58% |
| NWS | News Corporation | 1.16% | $0.35 | 16.79% |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | 1.15% | $0.60 | 41.87% |
| GFF | Griffon Corporation | 1.15% | $0.86 | 77.66% |
| LH | Labcorp Holdings Inc. | 1.15% | $2.89 | 28.24% |
| YAFIX | AMG Funds - AMG Yacktman Focused Fund | 1.15% | $0.22 | 27.84% |
| 0L1G.L | SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 1.14% | $0.99 | 29.41% |
| 0M29.L | Xylem Inc. | 1.14% | $1.56 | 40.08% |
| DHI | D.R. Horton, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.66 | 13.80% |