Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $646.44 - $1,004.44 | $812.01 |
| Multi-Stage | $4,687.60 - $5,193.34 | $4,935.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,873.62 | |
| Current Price | $4,390.00 | |
| Upside | -34.54% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -9.38% | 3.18% | 40.94 | 48.48 | 51.53 | 40.08 | 46.29 | 66.99 | 60.06 | 45.50 | 34.99 | 29.93 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -15.56% | -5.90% | 28.57% | -13.43% | -30.89% | 11.54% | 32.00% | 30.03% | 16.90% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.96% | 2.23% | 1.08% | 1.52% | 2.42% | 3.14% | 2.43% | 2.28% | 1.55% | 1.11% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,405.11 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,966.92 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 438.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 481.02 | 300.64 | 180.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 438.19 | 438.19 | 438.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -481.02 | -300.64 | -180.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -42.83 | 137.55 | 257.81 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.78 | 33.78 | 33.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.27 | 4.07 | 7.63 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 58.22 | 58.22 | 58.22 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.27 | 4.07 | 7.63 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 56.96 | 62.30 | 65.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 2.87% | 2.87% | 2.87% |
| Growth Rate | -5.46% | -4.46% | -3.46% |
| Fair Value | $646.44 | $812.01 | $1,004.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.27% | -81.50% | -77.12% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,405.11 | 2,297.77 | 2,195.23 | 2,097.26 | 2,003.66 | 1,914.24 | 1,971.66 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.78% | 83.42% | 85.07% | 86.71% | 88.36% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,966.92 | 1,916.91 | 1,867.45 | 1,818.58 | 1,770.36 | 1,722.81 | 1,823.79 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 2.87% | 2.87% | 2.87% |
| Growth Rate | -5.46% | -4.46% | -3.46% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,843.99 | 1,863.49 | 1,883.00 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,728.07 | 1,764.82 | 1,801.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,618.83 | 1,670.74 | 1,723.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,515.95 | 1,581.12 | 1,648.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,419.12 | 1,495.78 | 1,575.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 150,229.37 | 158,344.77 | 166,807.16 |
| Equity Value (M) | 158,355.32 | 166,720.72 | 175,439.96 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.78 | 33.78 | 33.78 |
| Fair Value | $4,687.60 | $4,935.23 | $5,193.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 6.78% | 12.42% | 18.30% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0K58.L | NOV Inc. | 1.29% | $0.20 | 15.83% |
| CON | Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | 1.29% | $0.25 | 20.88% |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International, Inc. | 1.28% | $0.98 | 32.90% |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | 1.28% | $4.20 | 23.23% |
| JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 1.28% | $2.29 | 34.69% |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | 1.28% | $2.08 | 29.19% |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health Corporation | 1.28% | $0.48 | 28.68% |
| WMG | Warner Music Group Corp. | 1.28% | $0.39 | 61.67% |
| 0K4C.L | NRG Energy, Inc. | 1.27% | $2.10 | 28.38% |
| DCI | Donaldson Company, Inc. | 1.27% | $1.14 | 35.14% |
| TEX | Terex Corporation | 1.27% | $0.70 | 29.49% |
| BCC | Boise Cascade Company | 1.26% | $0.93 | 18.09% |
| BCML | BayCom Corp | 1.25% | $0.36 | 16.94% |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc. | 1.25% | $7.07 | 44.68% |
| PRMW | Primo Water Corporation | 1.25% | $0.35 | 61.28% |
| ESI | Element Solutions Inc | 1.24% | $0.32 | 32.50% |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 1.23% | $3.00 | 31.76% |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 1.23% | $1.18 | 26.69% |
| PBI-PB | Pitney Bowes Inc. NT 43 | 1.23% | $0.25 | 61.37% |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial, Inc. | 1.23% | $2.01 | 19.48% |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | 1.23% | $1.00 | 17.78% |
| AMP | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 1.22% | $6.04 | 16.30% |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | 1.22% | $0.96 | 23.25% |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp, Inc. | 1.21% | $0.26 | 13.26% |
| RICK | RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | 1.21% | $0.28 | 15.00% |
| ABC | AmerisourceBergen Corporation | 1.20% | $2.25 | 28.12% |
| EQBK | Equity Bancshares, Inc. | 1.20% | $0.54 | 58.24% |
| HMNF | HMN Financial, Inc. | 1.20% | $0.34 | 28.27% |
| IBP | Installed Building Products, Inc. | 1.20% | $3.22 | 34.18% |
| CHH | Choice Hotels International, Inc. | 1.19% | $1.15 | 13.93% |
| EQC | Equity Commonwealth | 1.19% | $0.02 | 8.60% |
| FLS | Flowserve Corporation | 1.19% | $0.84 | 24.35% |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 1.19% | $1.90 | 33.71% |
| LNN | Lindsay Corporation | 1.19% | $1.44 | 21.27% |
| INGM | Ingram Micro Holding Corporation | 1.18% | $0.25 | 20.42% |
| RBA | RB Global, Inc. | 1.18% | $1.22 | 52.13% |
| SEIC | SEI Investments Company | 1.18% | $0.98 | 17.66% |
| HEES | H&E Equipment Services, Inc. | 1.17% | $1.11 | 44.29% |
| WSFS | WSFS Financial Corporation | 1.17% | $0.64 | 13.17% |
| ASTE | Astec Industries, Inc. | 1.16% | $0.52 | 24.84% |
| GFGD | The Growth for Good Acquisition Corporation | 1.16% | $0.12 | 42.35% |
| HUBG | Hub Group, Inc. | 1.16% | $0.50 | 28.58% |
| NWS | News Corporation | 1.16% | $0.35 | 16.79% |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | 1.15% | $0.60 | 41.87% |
| GFF | Griffon Corporation | 1.15% | $0.86 | 77.66% |
| LH | Labcorp Holdings Inc. | 1.15% | $2.89 | 28.24% |
| YAFIX | AMG Funds - AMG Yacktman Focused Fund | 1.15% | $0.22 | 27.84% |
| 0L1G.L | SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 1.14% | $0.99 | 29.41% |
| 0M29.L | Xylem Inc. | 1.14% | $1.56 | 40.08% |
| DHI | D.R. Horton, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.66 | 13.80% |