Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

JC Finance&Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd. (002530.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.39 - $0.55$0.47
Multi-Stage$0.58 - $0.63$0.60
Blended Fair Value$0.54
Current Price$11.33
Upside-95.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.92%-4.79%0.010.010.020.020.020.010.050.010.010.02
YoY Growth---10.09%-9.51%-15.59%9.88%38.71%-74.57%475.06%-38.10%-7.31%-30.26%
Dividend Yield--0.13%0.18%0.19%0.21%0.19%0.13%0.42%0.06%0.06%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.035.653.39
Cash Retained (M)40.3840.3840.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.03-5.65-3.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3434.7336.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)783.18783.18783.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-1.95%-0.95%0.05%
Fair Value$0.39$0.47$0.55
Upside / Downside-96.59%-95.88%-95.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.1644.7344.3143.8943.4743.0644.35
Payout Ratio10.60%26.48%42.36%58.24%74.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.7911.8418.7725.5632.2238.7641.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-1.95%-0.95%0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)10.6810.7910.90
Year 2 PV (M)15.2715.5815.90
Year 3 PV (M)18.7519.3319.92
Year 4 PV (M)21.3222.2023.11
Year 5 PV (M)23.1324.3325.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)362.25381.10400.73
Equity Value (M)451.39473.33496.14
Shares Outstanding (M)783.18783.18783.18
Fair Value$0.58$0.60$0.63
Upside / Downside-94.91%-94.67%-94.41%

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