Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd. (001296.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.57 - $44.35$28.43
Multi-Stage$14.04 - $15.33$14.67
Blended Fair Value$21.55
Current Price$22.80
Upside-5.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201620152014
DPS146.47%7.91%0.310.080.230.010.000.000.010.010.000.30
YoY Growth--276.80%-63.87%3,326.02%87.40%4.07%-46.84%-5.79%299.96%-99.44%109.28%
Dividend Yield--1.79%0.49%1.63%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.01%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.4517.7810.67
Cash Retained (M)110.39110.39110.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.45-17.78-10.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.9492.6199.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.34147.34147.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.630.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.630.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.57$28.43$44.35
Upside / Downside-14.19%24.68%94.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.27151.51161.36171.85183.02194.92200.76
Payout Ratio22.41%35.92%49.44%62.96%76.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.8854.4379.78108.20139.98175.42185.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.1749.6350.10
Year 2 PV (M)65.1066.3467.59
Year 3 PV (M)79.7582.0484.37
Year 4 PV (M)93.1996.78100.46
Year 5 PV (M)105.50110.60115.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,675.691,756.631,840.66
Equity Value (M)2,068.402,162.012,259.08
Shares Outstanding (M)147.34147.34147.34
Fair Value$14.04$14.67$15.33
Upside / Downside-38.43%-35.64%-32.75%

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