DDM Analysis: ODFL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$98.09 - $217.54	$141.45
Multi-Stage	$70.87 - $77.40	$74.07
Blended Fair Value	$107.76
Current Price	$140.78
Upside	-23.45%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	32.60%	0.00%	1.05	0.82	0.63	0.43	0.33	0.26	0.20	0.15	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	27.72%	30.19%	45.60%	30.05%	30.19%	28.16%	29.28%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.63%	0.38%	0.37%	0.29%	0.28%	0.39%	0.40%	0.32%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,057.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	232.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	824.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	211.48	132.17	79.30
Cash Retained (M)	824.76	824.76	824.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-211.48	-132.17	-79.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	613.28	692.58	745.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	213.26	213.26	213.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.88	3.25	3.50
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.88	3.25	3.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.97	4.34	4.59
WACC / Discount Rate	9.77%	9.77%	9.77%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$98.09	$141.45	$217.54
Upside / Downside	-30.33%	0.48%	54.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,057.38	1,126.11	1,199.30	1,277.26	1,360.28	1,448.70	1,492.16
Payout Ratio	22.00%	35.60%	49.20%	62.80%	76.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	232.62	400.89	590.06	802.12	1,039.25	1,303.83	1,380.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.77%	9.77%	9.77%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	361.79	365.22	368.65
Year 2 PV (M)	480.57	489.73	498.97
Year 3 PV (M)	589.57	606.50	623.74
Year 4 PV (M)	689.37	715.89	743.15
Year 5 PV (M)	780.53	818.23	857.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,211.44	12,801.25	13,413.64
Equity Value (M)	15,113.28	15,796.81	16,505.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	213.26	213.26	213.26
Fair Value	$70.87	$74.07	$77.40
Upside / Downside	-49.66%	-47.38%	-45.02%

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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener