DDM Analysis: TUB.BR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$75.59 - $158.24	$106.81
Multi-Stage	$57.46 - $62.75	$60.06
Blended Fair Value	$83.44
Current Price	$133.00
Upside	-37.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.61%	7.29%	0.97	0.86	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.54	0.52	0.50	0.48
YoY Growth	-	-	12.79%	14.68%	10.28%	9.68%	10.72%	3.62%	3.82%	4.00%	4.18%	0.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.68%	1.20%	1.06%	0.75%	0.75%	0.88%	0.89%	0.79%	0.84%	0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	182.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	46.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	136.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	36.55	22.84	13.71
Cash Retained (M)	136.42	136.42	136.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-36.55	-22.84	-13.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	99.87	113.58	122.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	44.51	44.51	44.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.24	2.55	2.76
LTM Dividend per Share	1.04	1.04	1.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.24	2.55	2.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.28	3.59	3.80
WACC / Discount Rate	9.87%	9.87%	9.87%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Fair Value	$75.59	$106.81	$158.24
Upside / Downside	-43.16%	-19.69%	18.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	182.76	194.26	206.48	219.47	233.28	247.96	255.40
Payout Ratio	25.35%	38.28%	51.21%	64.14%	77.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	46.33	74.37	105.74	140.77	179.79	223.17	236.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.87%	9.87%	9.87%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	67.05	67.69	68.32
Year 2 PV (M)	85.96	87.60	89.26
Year 3 PV (M)	103.18	106.15	109.17
Year 4 PV (M)	118.82	123.40	128.11
Year 5 PV (M)	132.97	139.41	146.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,049.82	2,149.03	2,252.04
Equity Value (M)	2,557.81	2,673.27	2,792.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	44.51	44.51	44.51
Fair Value	$57.46	$60.06	$62.75
Upside / Downside	-56.80%	-54.84%	-52.82%

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Financière de Tubize S.A. (TUB.BR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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