DDM Analysis: QAN.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.74 - $62.67	$43.02
Multi-Stage	$37.24 - $40.89	$39.03
Blended Fair Value	$41.03
Current Price	$10.74
Upside	282.02%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	4.15%	51.21%	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.23	0.15	0.16	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-43.80%	45.78%	-5.68%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.45%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	3.36%	4.18%	2.52%	2.87%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,860.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	250.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,610.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	572.00	357.50	214.50
Cash Retained (M)	2,610.00	2,610.00	2,610.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-572.00	-357.50	-214.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,038.00	2,252.50	2,395.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,607.00	1,607.00	1,607.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.27	1.40	1.49
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.27	1.40	1.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.42	1.56	1.65
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	2.37%	3.37%	4.37%
Fair Value	$30.74	$43.02	$62.67
Upside / Downside	186.22%	300.59%	483.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,860.00	2,956.39	3,056.03	3,159.03	3,265.50	3,375.55	3,476.82
Payout Ratio	8.74%	24.99%	41.24%	57.50%	73.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	250.00	738.89	1,260.45	1,816.33	2,408.25	3,038.00	3,216.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	2.37%	3.37%	4.37%
Year 1 PV (M)	683.16	689.83	696.50
Year 2 PV (M)	1,077.48	1,098.63	1,119.99
Year 3 PV (M)	1,435.55	1,478.03	1,521.34
Year 4 PV (M)	1,759.80	1,829.58	1,901.41
Year 5 PV (M)	2,052.54	2,154.77	2,261.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	52,844.05	55,475.99	58,211.78
Equity Value (M)	59,852.57	62,726.83	65,712.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,607.00	1,607.00	1,607.00
Fair Value	$37.24	$39.03	$40.89
Upside / Downside	246.79%	263.44%	280.74%

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Qantas Airways Limited (QAN.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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