Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.74 - $62.67$43.02
Multi-Stage$37.24 - $40.89$39.03
Blended Fair Value$41.03
Current Price$10.74
Upside282.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.15%51.21%0.160.000.000.000.000.130.230.150.160.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-43.80%45.78%-5.68%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.45%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%3.36%4.18%2.52%2.87%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,860.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,610.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)572.00357.50214.50
Cash Retained (M)2,610.002,610.002,610.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-572.00-357.50-214.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,038.002,252.502,395.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,607.001,607.001,607.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.271.401.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.271.401.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.37%3.37%4.37%
Fair Value$30.74$43.02$62.67
Upside / Downside186.22%300.59%483.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,860.002,956.393,056.033,159.033,265.503,375.553,476.82
Payout Ratio8.74%24.99%41.24%57.50%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.00738.891,260.451,816.332,408.253,038.003,216.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.37%3.37%4.37%
Year 1 PV (M)683.16689.83696.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,077.481,098.631,119.99
Year 3 PV (M)1,435.551,478.031,521.34
Year 4 PV (M)1,759.801,829.581,901.41
Year 5 PV (M)2,052.542,154.772,261.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,844.0555,475.9958,211.78
Equity Value (M)59,852.5762,726.8365,712.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,607.001,607.001,607.00
Fair Value$37.24$39.03$40.89
Upside / Downside246.79%263.44%280.74%

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