DDM Analysis: NCAB.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.24 - $53.13	$32.89
Multi-Stage	$15.25 - $16.68	$15.95
Blended Fair Value	$24.42
Current Price	$49.24
Upside	-50.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.11%	0.00%	1.10	1.10	0.60	0.50	0.00	0.40	0.01	0.48	0.00	0.53
YoY Growth	-	-	0.06%	83.33%	20.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	2,704.74%	-97.00%	89,070.30%	-99.90%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.14%	1.57%	0.98%	0.75%	0.00%	3.03%	0.12%	6.37%	0.01%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	194.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)	194.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38.94	24.34	14.60
Cash Retained (M)	194.41	194.41	194.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38.94	-24.34	-14.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	155.47	170.07	179.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	187.23	187.23	187.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.83	0.91	0.96
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.83	0.91	0.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.91	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	9.45%	9.45%	9.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$22.24	$32.89	$53.13
Upside / Downside	-54.83%	-33.20%	7.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	194.70	207.36	220.83	235.19	250.47	266.76	274.76
Payout Ratio	0.15%	18.12%	36.09%	54.06%	72.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.29	37.57	79.70	127.14	180.42	240.08	254.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.45%	9.45%	9.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.01	34.33	34.65
Year 2 PV (M)	65.29	66.53	67.79
Year 3 PV (M)	94.27	96.98	99.74
Year 4 PV (M)	121.08	125.74	130.53
Year 5 PV (M)	145.84	152.88	160.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,395.00	2,510.68	2,630.79
Equity Value (M)	2,855.49	2,987.15	3,123.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	187.23	187.23	187.23
Fair Value	$15.25	$15.95	$16.68
Upside / Downside	-69.03%	-67.60%	-66.12%

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NCAB Group AB (publ) (NCAB.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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