Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NCAB Group AB (publ) (NCAB.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.24 - $53.13$32.89
Multi-Stage$15.25 - $16.68$15.95
Blended Fair Value$24.42
Current Price$49.24
Upside-50.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.11%0.00%1.101.100.600.500.000.400.010.480.000.53
YoY Growth--0.06%83.33%20.00%0.00%-100.00%2,704.74%-97.00%89,070.30%-99.90%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.14%1.57%0.98%0.75%0.00%3.03%0.12%6.37%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)194.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.9424.3414.60
Cash Retained (M)194.41194.41194.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.94-24.34-14.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.47170.07179.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.23187.23187.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.910.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.910.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.24$32.89$53.13
Upside / Downside-54.83%-33.20%7.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.70207.36220.83235.19250.47266.76274.76
Payout Ratio0.15%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.2937.5779.70127.14180.42240.08254.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.0134.3334.65
Year 2 PV (M)65.2966.5367.79
Year 3 PV (M)94.2796.9899.74
Year 4 PV (M)121.08125.74130.53
Year 5 PV (M)145.84152.88160.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,395.002,510.682,630.79
Equity Value (M)2,855.492,987.153,123.69
Shares Outstanding (M)187.23187.23187.23
Fair Value$15.25$15.95$16.68
Upside / Downside-69.03%-67.60%-66.12%

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