DDM Analysis: CGAU

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.78 - $47.23	$33.82
Multi-Stage	$37.62 - $41.35	$39.45
Blended Fair Value	$36.64
Current Price	$10.40
Upside	252.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	3.28%	0.21	0.21	0.23	0.21	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.11%	-5.79%	5.82%	7.61%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-29.01%	2.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.24%	3.59%	3.49%	2.17%	2.23%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.87%	3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	338.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	41.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	297.11

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	67.74	42.34	25.40
Cash Retained (M)	297.11	297.11	297.11
(-) Cash Required (M)	-67.74	-42.34	-25.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	229.37	254.77	271.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	211.16	211.16	211.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.21	1.29
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.21	1.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.28	1.40	1.48
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	1.28%	2.28%	3.28%
Fair Value	$24.78	$33.82	$47.23
Upside / Downside	138.29%	225.21%	354.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	338.72	346.45	354.36	362.45	370.73	379.19	390.57
Payout Ratio	12.28%	27.83%	43.37%	58.91%	74.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	41.60	96.40	153.68	213.53	276.03	341.27	361.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	1.28%	2.28%	3.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	89.61	90.50	91.38
Year 2 PV (M)	132.79	135.43	138.09
Year 3 PV (M)	171.50	176.63	181.86
Year 4 PV (M)	206.08	214.34	222.85
Year 5 PV (M)	236.84	248.76	261.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,107.16	7,465.02	7,837.14
Equity Value (M)	7,943.99	8,330.68	8,732.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	211.16	211.16	211.16
Fair Value	$37.62	$39.45	$41.35
Upside / Downside	261.73%	279.34%	297.64%

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Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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