Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.78 - $47.23$33.82
Multi-Stage$37.62 - $41.35$39.45
Blended Fair Value$36.64
Current Price$10.40
Upside252.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%3.28%0.210.210.230.210.200.000.000.000.110.15
YoY Growth---3.11%-5.79%5.82%7.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-29.01%2.62%
Dividend Yield--3.24%3.59%3.49%2.17%2.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.87%3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)338.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.7442.3425.40
Cash Retained (M)297.11297.11297.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.74-42.34-25.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)229.37254.77271.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.16211.16211.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.211.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.211.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate1.28%2.28%3.28%
Fair Value$24.78$33.82$47.23
Upside / Downside138.29%225.21%354.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)338.72346.45354.36362.45370.73379.19390.57
Payout Ratio12.28%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.6096.40153.68213.53276.03341.27361.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate1.28%2.28%3.28%
Year 1 PV (M)89.6190.5091.38
Year 2 PV (M)132.79135.43138.09
Year 3 PV (M)171.50176.63181.86
Year 4 PV (M)206.08214.34222.85
Year 5 PV (M)236.84248.76261.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,107.167,465.027,837.14
Equity Value (M)7,943.998,330.688,732.49
Shares Outstanding (M)211.16211.16211.16
Fair Value$37.62$39.45$41.35
Upside / Downside261.73%279.34%297.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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