DDM Analysis: 688633.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.31 - $33.48	$22.88
Multi-Stage	$15.35 - $16.83	$16.08
Blended Fair Value	$19.48
Current Price	$25.44
Upside	-23.44%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	10.09%	0.00%	0.34	0.31	0.11	0.35	0.28	0.21	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	9.72%	196.43%	-70.28%	25.47%	33.33%	21.81%	5,161.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	1.70%	0.43%	1.57%	1.12%	0.67%	0.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	130.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	130.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	26.11	16.32	9.79
Cash Retained (M)	130.38	130.38	130.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-26.11	-16.32	-9.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	104.26	114.06	120.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	141.38	141.38	141.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.81	0.85
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.81	0.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.74	0.81	0.85
WACC / Discount Rate	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%
Growth Rate	3.64%	4.64%	5.64%
Fair Value	$16.31	$22.88	$33.48
Upside / Downside	-35.91%	-10.07%	31.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	130.57	136.62	142.95	149.58	156.51	163.76	168.68
Payout Ratio	0.15%	18.12%	36.09%	54.06%	72.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.19	24.75	51.59	80.86	112.73	147.39	156.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%
Growth Rate	3.64%	4.64%	5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)	22.63	22.85	23.06
Year 2 PV (M)	43.12	43.96	44.80
Year 3 PV (M)	61.80	63.60	65.44
Year 4 PV (M)	78.77	81.85	85.03
Year 5 PV (M)	94.16	98.79	103.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,869.81	1,961.78	2,057.33
Equity Value (M)	2,170.28	2,272.82	2,379.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	141.38	141.38	141.38
Fair Value	$15.35	$16.08	$16.83
Upside / Downside	-39.66%	-36.81%	-33.85%

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Nantong Xingqiu Graphite Co.,Ltd. (688633.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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