Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nantong Xingqiu Graphite Co.,Ltd. (688633.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.31 - $33.48$22.88
Multi-Stage$15.35 - $16.83$16.08
Blended Fair Value$19.48
Current Price$25.44
Upside-23.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS10.09%0.00%0.340.310.110.350.280.210.170.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.72%196.43%-70.28%25.47%33.33%21.81%5,161.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.70%0.43%1.57%1.12%0.67%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.1116.329.79
Cash Retained (M)130.38130.38130.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.11-16.32-9.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.26114.06120.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.38141.38141.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.810.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.810.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$16.31$22.88$33.48
Upside / Downside-35.91%-10.07%31.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.57136.62142.95149.58156.51163.76168.68
Payout Ratio0.15%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1924.7551.5980.86112.73147.39156.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)22.6322.8523.06
Year 2 PV (M)43.1243.9644.80
Year 3 PV (M)61.8063.6065.44
Year 4 PV (M)78.7781.8585.03
Year 5 PV (M)94.1698.79103.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,869.811,961.782,057.33
Equity Value (M)2,170.282,272.822,379.27
Shares Outstanding (M)141.38141.38141.38
Fair Value$15.35$16.08$16.83
Upside / Downside-39.66%-36.81%-33.85%

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