DDM Analysis: 603977.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$41.44 - $48.82	$45.75
Multi-Stage	$9.19 - $10.07	$9.62
Blended Fair Value	$27.69
Current Price	$13.06
Upside	112.00%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.03%	8.12%	0.19	0.07	0.16	0.12	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.18	0.01	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	166.28%	-55.62%	31.13%	16.35%	38.18%	27.34%	-67.72%	1,837.10%	-89.54%	5.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.46%	0.56%	1.75%	1.45%	1.32%	1.10%	0.93%	2.48%	0.07%	1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	152.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	73.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	78.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.44	19.03	11.42
Cash Retained (M)	78.71	78.71	78.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.44	-19.03	-11.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	48.27	59.68	67.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	620.05	620.05	620.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.21	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	5.78%	5.78%	5.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$41.44	$45.75	$48.82
Upside / Downside	217.28%	250.32%	273.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	152.21	162.10	172.64	183.86	195.81	208.54	214.80
Payout Ratio	48.29%	56.63%	64.97%	73.32%	81.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	73.50	91.80	112.17	134.80	159.90	187.69	198.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.78%	5.78%	5.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	85.97	86.79	87.60
Year 2 PV (M)	98.37	100.25	102.14
Year 3 PV (M)	110.71	113.89	117.13
Year 4 PV (M)	122.98	127.71	132.58
Year 5 PV (M)	135.19	141.72	148.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,147.93	5,396.58	5,654.74
Equity Value (M)	5,701.15	5,966.93	6,242.68
Shares Outstanding (M)	620.05	620.05	620.05
Fair Value	$9.19	$9.62	$10.07
Upside / Downside	-29.60%	-26.32%	-22.91%

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Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. (603977.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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