Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. (603977.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.44 - $48.82$45.75
Multi-Stage$9.19 - $10.07$9.62
Blended Fair Value$27.69
Current Price$13.06
Upside112.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.03%8.12%0.190.070.160.120.100.080.060.180.010.09
YoY Growth--166.28%-55.62%31.13%16.35%38.18%27.34%-67.72%1,837.10%-89.54%5.26%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.56%1.75%1.45%1.32%1.10%0.93%2.48%0.07%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.4419.0311.42
Cash Retained (M)78.7178.7178.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.44-19.03-11.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.2759.6867.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.05620.05620.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate5.78%5.78%5.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.44$45.75$48.82
Upside / Downside217.28%250.32%273.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.21162.10172.64183.86195.81208.54214.80
Payout Ratio48.29%56.63%64.97%73.32%81.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.5091.80112.17134.80159.90187.69198.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.78%5.78%5.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)85.9786.7987.60
Year 2 PV (M)98.37100.25102.14
Year 3 PV (M)110.71113.89117.13
Year 4 PV (M)122.98127.71132.58
Year 5 PV (M)135.19141.72148.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,147.935,396.585,654.74
Equity Value (M)5,701.155,966.936,242.68
Shares Outstanding (M)620.05620.05620.05
Fair Value$9.19$9.62$10.07
Upside / Downside-29.60%-26.32%-22.91%

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