DDM Analysis: 300230.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.65 - $2.31	$1.98
Multi-Stage	$4.55 - $5.04	$4.79
Blended Fair Value	$3.38
Current Price	$5.17
Upside	-34.55%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.10%	20.61%	0.14	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.52	0.26	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	1,209.57%	40.82%	-54.98%	-96.84%	99.77%	228.60%	15.28%	125.21%	-24.02%	91.54%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.43%	0.26%	0.18%	0.40%	12.92%	5.57%	1.30%	0.95%	0.30%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	224.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	60.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	163.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	44.84	28.03	16.82
Cash Retained (M)	163.96	163.96	163.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-44.84	-28.03	-16.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)	119.12	135.94	147.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	813.00	813.00	813.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.17	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.17	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.22	0.24	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-6.05%	-5.05%	-4.05%
Fair Value	$1.65	$1.98	$2.31
Upside / Downside	-68.14%	-61.74%	-55.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	224.22	212.90	202.16	191.96	182.28	173.08	178.27
Payout Ratio	26.87%	39.50%	52.12%	64.75%	77.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	60.25	84.09	105.37	124.29	141.04	155.77	164.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-6.05%	-5.05%	-4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)	78.10	78.93	79.76
Year 2 PV (M)	90.89	92.84	94.80
Year 3 PV (M)	99.57	102.79	106.07
Year 4 PV (M)	104.94	109.48	114.16
Year 5 PV (M)	107.64	113.50	119.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,221.38	3,396.50	3,579.16
Equity Value (M)	3,702.53	3,894.03	4,093.56
Shares Outstanding (M)	813.00	813.00	813.00
Fair Value	$4.55	$4.79	$5.04
Upside / Downside	-11.91%	-7.36%	-2.61%

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Shanghai YongLi Belting Co., Ltd (300230.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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