Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai YongLi Belting Co., Ltd (300230.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.65 - $2.31$1.98
Multi-Stage$4.55 - $5.04$4.79
Blended Fair Value$3.38
Current Price$5.17
Upside-34.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.10%20.61%0.140.010.010.020.520.260.080.070.030.04
YoY Growth--1,209.57%40.82%-54.98%-96.84%99.77%228.60%15.28%125.21%-24.02%91.54%
Dividend Yield--2.43%0.26%0.18%0.40%12.92%5.57%1.30%0.95%0.30%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)163.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.8428.0316.82
Cash Retained (M)163.96163.96163.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.84-28.03-16.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.12135.94147.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)813.00813.00813.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-6.05%-5.05%-4.05%
Fair Value$1.65$1.98$2.31
Upside / Downside-68.14%-61.74%-55.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.22212.90202.16191.96182.28173.08178.27
Payout Ratio26.87%39.50%52.12%64.75%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.2584.09105.37124.29141.04155.77164.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-6.05%-5.05%-4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)78.1078.9379.76
Year 2 PV (M)90.8992.8494.80
Year 3 PV (M)99.57102.79106.07
Year 4 PV (M)104.94109.48114.16
Year 5 PV (M)107.64113.50119.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,221.383,396.503,579.16
Equity Value (M)3,702.533,894.034,093.56
Shares Outstanding (M)813.00813.00813.00
Fair Value$4.55$4.79$5.04
Upside / Downside-11.91%-7.36%-2.61%

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