DDM Analysis: 0631.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$50.06 - $163.12	$152.87
Multi-Stage	$21.58 - $23.61	$22.58
Blended Fair Value	$87.73
Current Price	$6.16
Upside	1,324.13%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.56%	0.00%	0.17	0.20	0.13	0.12	0.11	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-13.02%	56.33%	3.43%	14.38%	22.67%	-27.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.05%	2.92%	1.78%	1.99%	2.19%	2.28%	5.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,028.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,165.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,862.72

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	605.73	378.58	227.15
Cash Retained (M)	1,862.72	1,862.72	1,862.72
(-) Cash Required (M)	-605.73	-378.58	-227.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,256.98	1,484.13	1,635.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,692.44	3,692.44	3,692.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.40	0.44
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.40	0.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.66	0.72	0.76
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$50.06	$152.87	$163.12
Upside / Downside	712.66%	2,381.68%	2,548.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,028.67	3,225.54	3,435.20	3,658.49	3,896.29	4,149.55	4,274.03
Payout Ratio	38.50%	48.80%	59.10%	69.40%	79.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,165.96	1,573.99	2,030.15	2,538.95	3,105.32	3,734.59	3,953.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,458.80	1,472.63	1,486.46
Year 2 PV (M)	1,743.88	1,777.09	1,810.62
Year 3 PV (M)	2,021.33	2,079.36	2,138.48
Year 4 PV (M)	2,291.31	2,379.43	2,470.07
Year 5 PV (M)	2,553.97	2,677.33	2,805.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	69,629.76	72,992.90	76,484.76
Equity Value (M)	79,699.06	83,378.74	87,195.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,692.44	3,692.44	3,692.44
Fair Value	$21.58	$22.58	$23.61
Upside / Downside	250.40%	266.57%	283.36%

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Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Company Limited (0631.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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