Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Company Limited (0631.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.06 - $163.12$152.87
Multi-Stage$21.58 - $23.61$22.58
Blended Fair Value$87.73
Current Price$6.16
Upside1,324.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.56%0.00%0.170.200.130.120.110.090.120.000.000.00
YoY Growth---13.02%56.33%3.43%14.38%22.67%-27.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.05%2.92%1.78%1.99%2.19%2.28%5.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,028.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,165.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,862.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.73378.58227.15
Cash Retained (M)1,862.721,862.721,862.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.73-378.58-227.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,256.981,484.131,635.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,692.443,692.443,692.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.06$152.87$163.12
Upside / Downside712.66%2,381.68%2,548.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,028.673,225.543,435.203,658.493,896.294,149.554,274.03
Payout Ratio38.50%48.80%59.10%69.40%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,165.961,573.992,030.152,538.953,105.323,734.593,953.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,458.801,472.631,486.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,743.881,777.091,810.62
Year 3 PV (M)2,021.332,079.362,138.48
Year 4 PV (M)2,291.312,379.432,470.07
Year 5 PV (M)2,553.972,677.332,805.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,629.7672,992.9076,484.76
Equity Value (M)79,699.0683,378.7487,195.80
Shares Outstanding (M)3,692.443,692.443,692.44
Fair Value$21.58$22.58$23.61
Upside / Downside250.40%266.57%283.36%

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