DDM Analysis: 002225.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.31 - $2.27	$1.72
Multi-Stage	$1.50 - $1.64	$1.57
Blended Fair Value	$1.65
Current Price	$5.89
Upside	-72.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.43%	0.02%	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.07	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	16.21%	4.37%	10.09%	-28.04%	35.58%	54.22%	-27.24%	-13.66%	7.49%	-26.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.78%	2.38%	1.87%	1.81%	2.09%	1.82%	0.80%	1.42%	1.22%	0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	107.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	50.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	56.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.40	13.38	8.03
Cash Retained (M)	56.92	56.92	56.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.40	-13.38	-8.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	35.52	43.54	48.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,081.47	1,081.47	1,081.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	8.84%	8.84%	8.84%
Growth Rate	2.63%	3.63%	4.63%
Fair Value	$1.31	$1.72	$2.27
Upside / Downside	-77.79%	-70.77%	-61.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	107.02	110.91	114.93	119.11	123.43	127.92	131.76
Payout Ratio	46.81%	55.45%	64.09%	72.73%	81.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	50.10	61.50	73.66	86.62	100.43	115.13	121.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.84%	8.84%	8.84%
Growth Rate	2.63%	3.63%	4.63%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.96	56.50	57.05
Year 2 PV (M)	60.98	62.18	63.38
Year 3 PV (M)	65.25	67.18	69.14
Year 4 PV (M)	68.84	71.56	74.36
Year 5 PV (M)	71.80	75.36	79.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,300.79	1,365.41	1,432.57
Equity Value (M)	1,623.62	1,698.19	1,775.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,081.47	1,081.47	1,081.47
Fair Value	$1.50	$1.57	$1.64
Upside / Downside	-74.51%	-73.34%	-72.13%

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Puyang Refractories Group Co., Ltd. (002225.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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