Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Puyang Refractories Group Co., Ltd. (002225.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $2.27$1.72
Multi-Stage$1.50 - $1.64$1.57
Blended Fair Value$1.65
Current Price$5.89
Upside-72.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.43%0.02%0.090.080.080.070.100.070.050.060.070.07
YoY Growth--16.21%4.37%10.09%-28.04%35.58%54.22%-27.24%-13.66%7.49%-26.17%
Dividend Yield--1.78%2.38%1.87%1.81%2.09%1.82%0.80%1.42%1.22%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.4013.388.03
Cash Retained (M)56.9256.9256.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.40-13.38-8.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.5243.5448.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,081.471,081.471,081.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate2.63%3.63%4.63%
Fair Value$1.31$1.72$2.27
Upside / Downside-77.79%-70.77%-61.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.02110.91114.93119.11123.43127.92131.76
Payout Ratio46.81%55.45%64.09%72.73%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1061.5073.6686.62100.43115.13121.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate2.63%3.63%4.63%
Year 1 PV (M)55.9656.5057.05
Year 2 PV (M)60.9862.1863.38
Year 3 PV (M)65.2567.1869.14
Year 4 PV (M)68.8471.5674.36
Year 5 PV (M)71.8075.3679.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,300.791,365.411,432.57
Equity Value (M)1,623.621,698.191,775.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,081.471,081.471,081.47
Fair Value$1.50$1.57$1.64
Upside / Downside-74.51%-73.34%-72.13%

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