DDM Analysis: 000893.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$27.46 - $48.95	$36.51
Multi-Stage	$27.86 - $30.53	$29.17
Blended Fair Value	$32.84
Current Price	$39.17
Upside	-16.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	5.15%	0.07	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	792.21%	258.29%	325.05%	-88.52%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-98.81%	309.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.30%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%	0.04%	0.00%	0.15%	0.00%	0.01%	1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,795.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	56.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,738.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	359.04	224.40	134.64
Cash Retained (M)	1,738.30	1,738.30	1,738.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-359.04	-224.40	-134.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,379.26	1,513.90	1,603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	913.35	913.35	913.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.51	1.66	1.76
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.51	1.66	1.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.57	1.72	1.82
WACC / Discount Rate	9.06%	9.06%	9.06%
Growth Rate	3.15%	4.15%	5.15%
Fair Value	$27.46	$36.51	$48.95
Upside / Downside	-29.89%	-6.79%	24.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,795.20	1,869.69	1,947.27	2,028.08	2,112.23	2,199.88	2,265.87
Payout Ratio	3.17%	20.54%	37.90%	55.27%	72.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	56.89	383.95	738.05	1,120.87	1,534.19	1,979.89	2,095.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.06%	9.06%	9.06%
Growth Rate	3.15%	4.15%	5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)	348.69	352.07	355.45
Year 2 PV (M)	608.71	620.57	632.54
Year 3 PV (M)	839.55	864.20	889.33
Year 4 PV (M)	1,043.60	1,084.66	1,126.92
Year 5 PV (M)	1,223.09	1,283.53	1,346.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	21,382.42	22,439.19	23,537.34
Equity Value (M)	25,446.05	26,644.22	27,887.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	913.35	913.35	913.35
Fair Value	$27.86	$29.17	$30.53
Upside / Downside	-28.87%	-25.52%	-22.05%

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Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd. (000893.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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