Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd. (000893.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.46 - $48.95$36.51
Multi-Stage$27.86 - $30.53$29.17
Blended Fair Value$32.84
Current Price$39.17
Upside-16.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.15%0.070.010.000.000.000.000.010.000.000.18
YoY Growth--792.21%258.29%325.05%-88.52%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-98.81%309.68%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.04%0.01%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.15%0.00%0.01%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,795.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,738.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)359.04224.40134.64
Cash Retained (M)1,738.301,738.301,738.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-359.04-224.40-134.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,379.261,513.901,603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)913.35913.35913.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.511.661.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.511.661.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.571.721.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$27.46$36.51$48.95
Upside / Downside-29.89%-6.79%24.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,795.201,869.691,947.272,028.082,112.232,199.882,265.87
Payout Ratio3.17%20.54%37.90%55.27%72.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.89383.95738.051,120.871,534.191,979.892,095.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)348.69352.07355.45
Year 2 PV (M)608.71620.57632.54
Year 3 PV (M)839.55864.20889.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,043.601,084.661,126.92
Year 5 PV (M)1,223.091,283.531,346.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,382.4222,439.1923,537.34
Equity Value (M)25,446.0526,644.2227,887.93
Shares Outstanding (M)913.35913.35913.35
Fair Value$27.86$29.17$30.53
Upside / Downside-28.87%-25.52%-22.05%

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