DDM Analysis: 000631.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.07 - $0.09	$0.08
Multi-Stage	$0.13 - $0.14	$0.13
Blended Fair Value	$0.11
Current Price	$3.21
Upside	-96.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-17.85%	-6.23%	0.11	0.27	0.00	0.02	0.05	0.28	0.40	0.17	0.10	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	-61.24%	6,902.90%	-76.71%	-63.33%	-83.85%	-30.14%	130.90%	67.55%	-46.25%	-3.32%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.74%	9.29%	0.11%	0.46%	1.48%	9.69%	10.55%	4.27%	2.10%	5.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	95.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	36.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)	59.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.06	11.91	7.15
Cash Retained (M)	59.06	59.06	59.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.06	-11.91	-7.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.00	47.15	51.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,227.47	2,227.47	2,227.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-26.05%	-25.05%	-24.05%
Fair Value	$0.07	$0.08	$0.09
Upside / Downside	-97.81%	-97.51%	-97.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	95.30	71.42	53.53	40.12	30.07	22.53	23.21
Payout Ratio	38.02%	48.42%	58.81%	69.21%	79.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	36.23	34.58	31.48	27.76	23.93	20.28	21.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-26.05%	-25.05%	-24.05%
Year 1 PV (M)	31.02	31.44	31.86
Year 2 PV (M)	25.33	26.02	26.72
Year 3 PV (M)	20.04	20.87	21.71
Year 4 PV (M)	15.50	16.36	17.25
Year 5 PV (M)	11.78	12.60	13.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	178.56	190.96	204.05
Equity Value (M)	282.24	298.26	315.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,227.47	2,227.47	2,227.47
Fair Value	$0.13	$0.13	$0.14
Upside / Downside	-96.05%	-95.83%	-95.59%

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Shunfa Hengye Corporation (000631.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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