Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shunfa Hengye Corporation (000631.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.07 - $0.09$0.09
Multi-Stage$0.18 - $0.20$0.19
Blended Fair Value$0.14
Current Price$3.21
Upside-95.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.85%-6.23%0.110.270.000.020.050.280.400.170.100.19
YoY Growth---61.24%6,902.90%-76.71%-63.33%-83.85%-30.14%130.90%67.55%-46.25%-3.32%
Dividend Yield--3.74%9.29%0.11%0.46%1.48%9.69%10.55%4.27%2.10%5.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0611.917.15
Cash Retained (M)59.0659.0659.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.06-11.91-7.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.0047.1551.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,227.472,227.472,227.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate-26.05%-25.05%-24.05%
Fair Value$0.07$0.09$0.09
Upside / Downside-97.67%-97.34%-97.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.3071.4253.5340.1230.0722.5323.21
Payout Ratio38.02%48.42%58.81%69.21%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.2334.5831.4827.7623.9320.2821.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate-26.05%-25.05%-24.05%
Year 1 PV (M)31.6532.0832.51
Year 2 PV (M)26.3827.1027.82
Year 3 PV (M)21.2922.1723.07
Year 4 PV (M)16.8017.7318.69
Year 5 PV (M)13.0313.9414.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)287.97307.97329.07
Equity Value (M)397.12420.98446.06
Shares Outstanding (M)2,227.472,227.472,227.47
Fair Value$0.18$0.19$0.20
Upside / Downside-94.45%-94.11%-93.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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