DDM Analysis: RCL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$217.94 - $394.95	$291.65
Multi-Stage	$170.46 - $186.05	$178.11
Blended Fair Value	$234.88
Current Price	$323.58
Upside	-27.41%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-29.23%	-6.01%	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.18	2.19	1.91	1.59	1.26	1.02
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-45.84%	14.25%	20.58%	26.25%	23.65%	40.84%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.19%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.38%	6.80%	1.66%	1.35%	1.28%	1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,071.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	659.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,412.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	814.20	508.88	305.33
Cash Retained (M)	3,412.00	3,412.00	3,412.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-814.20	-508.88	-305.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,597.80	2,903.13	3,106.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	275.50	275.50	275.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.43	10.54	11.28
LTM Dividend per Share	2.39	2.39	2.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.43	10.54	11.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	11.82	12.93	13.67
WACC / Discount Rate	11.12%	11.12%	11.12%
Growth Rate	5.40%	6.40%	7.40%
Fair Value	$217.94	$291.65	$394.95
Upside / Downside	-32.65%	-9.87%	22.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,071.00	4,331.51	4,608.69	4,903.60	5,217.39	5,551.26	5,717.80
Payout Ratio	16.19%	30.95%	45.71%	60.48%	75.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	659.00	1,340.61	2,106.75	2,965.46	3,925.44	4,996.14	5,288.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.12%	11.12%	11.12%
Growth Rate	5.40%	6.40%	7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,195.15	1,206.49	1,217.83
Year 2 PV (M)	1,674.39	1,706.32	1,738.54
Year 3 PV (M)	2,101.16	2,161.53	2,223.05
Year 4 PV (M)	2,479.57	2,575.02	2,673.20
Year 5 PV (M)	2,813.49	2,949.51	3,090.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	36,697.55	38,471.78	40,313.99
Equity Value (M)	46,961.32	49,070.66	51,257.36
Shares Outstanding (M)	275.50	275.50	275.50
Fair Value	$170.46	$178.11	$186.05
Upside / Downside	-47.32%	-44.95%	-42.50%

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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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